Industrial manufacturing and manufacturing manufacturing each beat Bloomberg consensus (+0.1% vs 0%). Right here’s the image of some key indicators adopted by the NBER Business Cycle Courting Committee, plus month-to-month GDP and GDPNow (latter up at this time to 2.4% vs. 2.2% SAAR on 1/10).
Determine 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (daring darkish blue), implied stage utilizing Bloomberg consensus as of 1/3 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (purple), private earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (daring inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd launch (blue bars), and GDPNow for 2023Q4 as of 1/17 (lilac field), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd launch incorporating complete revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1/3/2024 launch), Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
The evolution of GDPNow estimates highlights how incoming information has continued to push again any probably date for recession begin. Whereas GDPNow was raised by about 0.2 ppts, GS raised its monitoring estimate by 0.3 ppts, to 1.8%. Their estimate of ultimate gross sales development was additionally raised to 2.5% (GDPNow’s estimate of ultimate demand is 2.9%).
Supply: Atlanta Fed, accessed 1/17/2024.
Different knowledge coming in at this time shocked on the upside, with m/m nominal retail gross sales at +0.6% vs. +0.4% consensus. Under is a a time sequence plot of deflated retail gross sales and retail and meals service gross sales.
Determine 2: Actual retail gross sales (blue), and retail and meals providers gross sales (tan), in logs 2021M11=0. Deflated utilizing chained CPI, adjusted by X13 by writer. Supply: Census and BLS through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
